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本文首先从资本结构动态调整的视角逐一评述了资本结构部分调整模型的6种主要估计方法。然后,针对我国上市公司的实际样本使用这些估计方法进行了实证检验。在此基础上,依据我国上市公司资本结构的分布形态,采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术来识别和判断这些方法在估计我国上市公司资本结构调整速度中的有效性。本文发现,传统的混合OLS估计法及Fama-MacBeth估计法是检验我国上市公司资本结构动态调整的有效方法,其估计所得的市值杠杆平均调整速度是16.3%～20.1%。
Firstly, this paper reviews six main estimation methods of partial adjustment of capital structure from the perspective of dynamic adjustment of capital structure. Then, empirical tests are carried out using these estimation methods for the actual samples of Chinese listed companies. On this basis, according to the distribution of the capital structure of listed companies in our country, we use Monte Carlo simulation technology to identify and judge the validity of these methods in estimating the speed of capital structure adjustment of listed companies in our country. This paper finds that the traditional hybrid OLS estimation method and Fama-MacBeth estimation method are effective methods to test the dynamic adjustment of the capital structure of listed companies in our country. The average adjusted leverage of market capitalization is estimated to be 16.3% -20.1%.