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水生态承载力研究近年来在我国逐渐开展,并受到较多关注。论述了生态承载力概念的起源、水生态承载力的概念和内涵,以及水生态承载力的评估技术方法研究现状,同时总结了目前以系统动力学结合情景分析法相结合的研究方法在基于承载力的产业结构调整领域应用较为广泛。文章提出了基于水生态承载力的产业结构优化研究的思路和技术路线,并基于符合水生态系统耦合作用分析和“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)”模型建立了流域水生态承载力评价指标体系,并设计了流域水生态承载力综合评价模型。最后,构建了基于水生态承载力的产业结构演化情景模式。
Research on ecological carrying capacity of water has been gradually carried out in our country in recent years and attracted more attention. This paper discusses the origin of the concept of ecological carrying capacity, the concept and connotation of the ecological carrying capacity, as well as the status quo of research methods for the assessment methods of ecological carrying capacity. At the same time, it summarizes the current research methods based on the combination of system dynamics and scenario analysis, The field of industrial restructuring is more widely used. In this paper, the idea and technical route of industrial structure optimization based on aquatic ecological carrying capacity are put forward. Based on the analysis of the coupled action of aquatic ecosystem and the model of "driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) Water ecological carrying capacity evaluation index system, and designed a comprehensive evaluation model of water ecological carrying capacity. Finally, a model of industrial structure evolution based on aquatic ecological carrying capacity is constructed.