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理论上分析了市场潜力、贸易开放对地区产业多样化水平的影响,并利用2000—2014年中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:地区市场潜力与贸易开放度的提升均对地区产业无关多样化水平具有积极影响,对产业相关多样化水平存在显著的负向作用。即市场潜力的提高形成了需求的多元化,直接引致了大量无关产业的集聚;较高的对外贸易水平和市场开放程度促进大量无关产业的空间集聚,同时却也抑制了相关产业的空间集聚规模。相比较而言,贸易开放度对地区多样化的影响程度更为突出。此外,市场潜力、贸易开放对多样化的影响在宏观经济平稳发展时期与经济发生外部冲击时呈现较明显的异质性,同时对不同地区产业多样化的边际效应也存在明显差异。
It theoretically analyzes the influence of market potential and trade liberalization on the diversification of industries in the region. Empirical tests were conducted by using the panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2014. The research finds that both the market potentiality and the degree of trade openness in the region have a positive impact on the irrelevant diversification of industries in the region, and have a significant negative effect on the diversification level of industries. That is to say, the increase of market potential has led to the diversification of demands and has directly led to the agglomeration of a large number of unrelated industries. The higher level of foreign trade and market liberalization have promoted the spatial agglomeration of a large number of unrelated industries while restraining the spatial agglomeration of related industries . In contrast, the impact of trade openness on regional diversification is even more prominent. In addition, the influence of market potential and trade liberalization on diversification shows obvious heterogeneity in the period of stable macroeconomic development and external shocks to the economy, and there are also significant differences in the marginal effects of industrial diversification in different regions.