美国Electronicast公司预期,到2000年纤维光学元件的世界销售额可达390亿美元。这家在加利福尼亚Redwood城的公司还预计,截至1990年光波元件的主要应用将从长途通信干线转向局部配线系统;光纤将最终取代遍布地方工厂的电线,甚至进入用户住宅。最近,该公司在加利福尼亚Monterey召开了题为“2000年的纤维光学”讨论会。在为期两天的会议上,Electronicast公司的官员及来宾们就本世纪末纤维光学的发展做了某些预言。其内容是:组合光电器件和电子器件的集成电路将代替某些光波分立元件,从而为集成光路开辟道路;190亿美元的美国光波系统市场将利用6800万公里的光纤;长途通信光缆的 Electronicast Company of the United States expects world sales of fiber optic components to reach 39 billion U.S. dollars by the year 2000. The Redwood City, Calif.-based company also predicts that the main use of lightwave components will shift from long-haul communications to local distribution systems by 1990; fiber will eventually displace wires from local factories and even into residential homes. Most recently, the company held a seminar entitled “Fiber Optics 2000” in Monterey, California. At a two-day meeting, Electronicast officials and guests made some predictions about the development of fiber optics at the turn of the century. Its content is: Integrated optoelectronic devices and electronic devices will replace some of the discrete components of light wave, which opens the way for integrated optical path; 19 billion US optical light system market will use 68 million kilometers of fiber; long-distance communications cable