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由于模型复杂、计算困难,Weibull型备件的需求量通常采用指数型备件的需求模型进行近似计算(称为指数算法).虽然指数算法计算简单,工程应用方便,但结果保守,容易造成备件资源的浪费.文章根据“累积失效概率相等”原则,利用Weibull型与指数型备件在保障时间内期望累积故障次数相等的关系,提出一种改进的指数算法,能够更加方便准确地确定备件需求量.通过蒙特卡洛模拟和算法比较,结果显示:当保障时间小于平均寿命时,改进算法的计算结果比原指数算法的保守度大大降低,更加接近真实需求量,从而能够有效减少备件的浪费.
Due to the complexity of the model and calculation difficulties, the demand of Weibull type spare parts is usually approximated by the demand model of exponential type spare parts (called exponential algorithm). Although the exponential algorithm is easy to calculate and the application is convenient, the result is conservative and the spare parts resources Waste.According to the principle of “equal probability of cumulative failure”, this paper proposes an improved exponential algorithm based on the principle that Weibull-type and exponential-type spare parts have equal cumulative failure times within the guarantee time, which can more easily and accurately determine the spare parts demand The results of Monte Carlo simulation and comparison show that when the guarantee time is less than the average life expectancy, the results of the improved algorithm are much less conservative than the original index algorithm and closer to the real demand, which can effectively reduce the waste of spare parts.