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为实现城市公共资源的高效分配,提高居民福利,文章以深圳汽车增量指标竞价制度为例,构建了计量模型,计算出深圳汽车增量指标竞价制度非完全信息动态博弈下的统计近似解,以2015年2月-2016年2月的数据进行了检验,并对社会福利的损失和额外转移进行了定量分析。结果表明,按三角形密度函数构造的计量模型符合实际情况,近似解方便使用、可操作性强,为下一步对该类政策效率、消费者剩余损失、政策改进等深入研究奠定了充分的数理基础,也指明了分析研究的方向。
In order to realize the efficient distribution of urban public resources and improve the residents’ welfare, this paper builds a metrological model based on Shenzhen automobile incremental bidding system, and calculates the statistical approximate solution under the dynamic game of incomplete information of automobile incremental bidding system in Shenzhen. From February 2015 to February 2016, the data were tested and a quantitative analysis of the loss of social welfare and additional transfers was conducted. The results show that the metrological model constructed by the triangle density function accords with the actual situation, the approximate solution is easy to use and the operability is strong, which lays a sufficient mathematical foundation for further research on such policy efficiency, consumer surplus loss and policy improvement , Also pointed out the direction of analysis and research.