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房地产业是国民经济的支柱性产业,商业地产作为房地产业的重要组成部分,具有与宏观经济类似的周期性波动特征。在考虑重庆市目前的统计现状及指标数据可得性的基础上选取2003-2016年与商业地产周期相关的14个统计指标的年度数据,运用SPSS16.0软件进行时序全局主成分分析,并绘制了重庆市商业地产周期波动的时序图。实证结果表明,在2003到2016年间,重庆市商业地产周期大致经历了3个完整的周期,周期平均长度为4个年度。在此基础上为宏观经济政策的制定和促进重庆市商业地产的健康良性发展提供建议。
Real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy. Commercial real estate, as an important part of the real estate industry, has the characteristics of cyclical fluctuation similar to the macroeconomy. Taking into account the current statistical status quo in Chongqing and the availability of index data, the annual data of 14 statistical indexes related to the commercial real estate cycle from 2003 to 2016 were selected. The SPSS 16.0 software was used to analyze the sequential global principal component analysis and draw Chongqing city commercial real estate cycle fluctuations in the timing diagram. The empirical results show that in 2003 to 2016, Chongqing’s commercial real estate cycle has gone through about 3 complete cycles, with an average cycle length of 4 years. On this basis, it will provide suggestions for formulating macroeconomic policies and promoting healthy and healthy development of commercial real estate in Chongqing.