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南水北调中线干线工程的工期长、环境差异大、不确定性因素多等方面的原因,导致工程上常发生索赔问题。以博弈论为基础,建立业主与承包商之间博弈的基本假设,并构建动态索赔博弈模型,并利用逆推归纳法对此模型进行博弈分析,得出了博弈双方在四种不同条件下的得益情况、纳什均衡以及策略组合。最后,将该模型运用到南水北调中线干线工程某项目索赔实践中。结果表明,该模型使索赔决策具有科学合理的理论依据和应用价值。
South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route main project has a long construction period, large environmental differences and many uncertainties, leading to frequent claims in the project. Based on game theory, this paper establishes the basic hypothesis of game between owner and contractor, constructs game model of dynamic claim, and uses game theory to analyze the model by using the method of backtracking induction. The result shows that under the four different conditions Benefit, Nash Equilibrium, and Strategy Portfolio. Finally, the model is applied to the claim of a certain project of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The results show that the model makes the decision of the claim scientific and reasonable theoretical basis and application value.