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一代粘虫为我区小麦生产上的一种暴发性害虫,正确掌握发生数量动态,指导适时防治,是控制危害,确保夏粮丰收的重要一环.本文在以往运用数理统计预报方法的基础上,根据其种群数量变化与种群特性及周围环境因子之间的内在联系规律,通过相关分析,挑选显著性水平α=0.10的线性相关因子,采用多因子逐步线性回归方程的数学模式,运用ALGOL-60语言程序,经国产TQ-16大型数字电子计算机运算,分别组建预测一代粘虫发生数量的中期和短期预报方程组,并用显著水平F值,离回归标准差δ和复相关系数R的大小作为衡量最佳方程的标准,经验证:历史拟合率为77.8—94.4%,试测1980年,预报值与实况接近或吻合,初步认为有其应用的价值.
One generation of armyworms is an outbreak of pests on wheat production in our region. It is an important part to control the harm and ensure the harvest of summer grain by correctly controlling the occurrence of quantity and dynamics and guiding timely prevention and control.In this paper, based on the previous mathematical forecast method, According to the relationship between population change and population characteristics and environmental factors, the linear correlation coefficient of significant level α = 0.10 was selected by correlation analysis, the mathematical model of stepwise linear regression equation of multiple factors was used, and ALGOL-60 Language program, the domestic TQ-16 large-scale digital computer operations, respectively, to establish a prediction of the number of generation of armyworm the number of medium and short-term forecasting equations, and with significant level F value, return to the standard deviation δ and the magnitude of the complex correlation coefficient R as a measure The best equation standard is verified: the historical fitting rate is 77.8-94.4%. In the test of 1980, the forecast value is close to or coincide with the actual situation, and it is initially believed to have its application value.