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为了稳定和扩大玉米产量,保证中国粮食安全和能源安全,分析了有效播种面积、单位播种面积的费用要素投入等影响玉米生产的主要因素。单位播种面积的费用要素投入包括化肥、农家肥、农业机械、排灌、农药、以及劳动力投入。采用计量经济学的方法,建立了玉米的生产函数模型。用该模型比较了近20年来各因素对玉米产量的贡献率。结果表明:有效播种面积和化肥投入费用是玉米增产最主要的贡献因素,而技术进步等其他因素目前贡献率比较小。
In order to stabilize and expand the corn production and ensure the food security and energy security in China, the main factors that affect the corn production are analyzed, such as the effective sown area and the input of cost elements per unit sown area. The unit cost of sown area inputs include fertilizers, farmyard manure, agricultural machinery, irrigation and drainage, pesticides, and labor inputs. Using the method of econometrics, the production function model of corn was established. The model was used to compare the contribution rates of various factors to maize production in the past 20 years. The results showed that the effective sown area and input cost of fertilizer were the most important contributors to the increase of corn yield while the contribution rate of other factors such as technological progress was relatively small at present.