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取消农业税作为中国农村经济领域的一项重要政策一直备受学术界关注,本文首次从农业劳动力转移的角度对其政策效应进行分析。通过观察中国宏观层面的农劳比指标变化,结果发现:2004年开始取消农业税以后,中国农业劳动力向非农产业转移的进程明显加快。我们选取1999—2006年中国省级面板数据,采用双重差分的识别方法进行实证检验,证明了取消农业税对促进我国农业劳动力向非农产业转移的政策效应明显,并对其作用机理进行了推测。我们认为在经济下行时期,为从供给侧提升经济增长潜力,可从进一步促进我国农业劳动力转移着手,继续推进农村经济领域的相关改革。
As an important policy in the field of rural economy in China, the abolition of agricultural tax has drawn much attention from academics. For the first time, this paper analyzes the policy effects from the perspective of agricultural labor transfer. By observing the changes in the indicators of agricultural-labor ratio at the macro level in China, it was found that after the abolition of the agricultural tax in 2004, the process of China’s agricultural labor transfer to non-agricultural industries accelerated noticeably. We select the Chinese provincial panel data from 1999 to 2006 and use the double difference identification method to test the feasibility of the agricultural tax. In the period of economic downturn, we think that in order to enhance the economic growth potential from the supply side, we can proceed from further promoting the transfer of China’s agricultural labor force and continue to push forward relevant reforms in the rural economy.