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利用加拿大1990—2010年林产品产量数据,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,考察加拿大经济增长与森林资源采伐量之间的关系。与以往研究不同的是,在回归模型中加入了代表林木生长周期的时间序列变量,以探讨林木生长周期对森林资源采伐量的影响。结果显示,加拿大森林资源采伐量与经济增长存在倒U型曲线关系,且林木生长周期对曲线形状的影响显著。从研究结果得到的政策启示是,在设置森林采伐限额时应注意林木的生长周期,在林木初生长期应降低采伐限额来保护幼树,从而为采伐迹地天然更新提供充足的种源和条件。
Using the Canadian forest production data from 1990 to 2010 and the environmental Kuznets curve model, this paper examines the relationship between Canada’s economic growth and the amount of forest resources harvested. Different from previous studies, the time series variables that represent the growth cycle of forest trees were added to the regression model to explore the effect of forest growth cycle on forest resources harvesting. The results show that there is an inverse U-shaped curve between the amount of forest resources harvested in Canada and economic growth, and the tree growth cycle has a significant effect on the shape of the curve. The policy enlightenment from the research results is that the forest growth quota should be paid attention to the growth cycle of the forest and the cutting limit should be lowered in the early growth period of the forest to protect the sapling so as to provide sufficient provenance and conditions for natural regeneration of the deforestation.