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近年来,生产性服务业占我国国民经济的比例越来越高。基于结构分解模型(SDA),结合增加值诱发系数、中间消耗系数和增加值系数等指标,从需求变化、产业关联和价值创造三个角度分析2002—2012年我国生产性服务业增加值增长的动因。结果显示,国内需求增长和产业关联变化是推动生产性服务业增长的主要动因,以2007年为界,投资与消费增长的贡献在后期更强,而出口的贡献在减弱;产业关联变化在前期抑制生产性服务业的增长,而在后期起促进作用;由于行业利润系数在后期下降,价值创造能力也随之下降,不利于生产性服务业的发展。
In recent years, the proportion of producer services in our national economy has been rising. Based on the structural decomposition model (SDA), combined with the indicators of value-added, intermediate consumption and value added, this paper analyzes the growth of value added of China’s producer services from 2002 to 2012 from the perspectives of demand changes, industrial relations and value creation Motivation. The results show that domestic demand growth and changes in industrial relations are the main motivations for promoting the growth of producer services. In 2007, the contribution of investment and consumption growth was stronger in the latter part of the year, while the contribution of exports weakened. In the early stage Inhibit the growth of producer services, and play a catalytic role in the latter part of the world. As the industry profitability declines in the latter part of the year, the ability to create value also decreases, which hinders the development of producer services.