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目的:探讨无创-有创机械通气序贯性治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重(AECOPD)时的切换时机,有效降低气管插管率。方法:回顾性分析2014年7月至2019年3月入住开封市中心医院急诊抢救室和呼吸科行机械通气的AECOPD患者临床资料。将入组时存在无创机械通气(NIV)相对禁忌证仍坚持使用NIV者纳入NIV组(118例),使用气管插管有创正压机械通气(IPPV)者纳入IPPV组(52例),比较两组患者总机械通气时间、住院时间和住院病死率。收集患者年龄、性别、体温、呼吸频率、体重指数(BMI)、平均动脉压(MAP)、氧合指数(PaOn 2/FiOn 2)、呼吸指数(RI)、pH值、D -二聚体、血红蛋白(HB)、白蛋白、血乳酸(Lac)、脑钠肽(BNP)、C -反应蛋白(CRP)、降钙素原(PCT)、血肌酐(SCr)、白细胞计数(WBC)、格拉斯哥昏迷评分(GCS)、是否存在排痰障碍等临床指标,对影响NIV失败的因素进行二分类Logistic逐步回归分析;用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)检验NIV失败风险预测模型的价值。n 结果:NIV组与IPPV组间总机械通气时间、住院病死率差异无统计学意义(h:65.6±11.11比66.9±12.1,6.8%比9.6%,均n P>0.05),但NIV组住院时间明显短于IPPV组(d:12.3±2.1比14.2±2.5,n P 0.05), but the hospital time in group NIV was significantly shorter than that in IPPV group (days: 12.3±2.1 vs. 14.2±2.5, n P < 0.05). In NIV group, 101 cases completed NIV continuously, 17 cases of NIV failure turned to IPPV, and the failure rate of NIV was 14.4%. There were statistically significant differences in gender, PaO n 2/FiOn 2, RI, pH value, D-dimer, PCT, WBC, Lac, sputum excretion drainage and GCS score between NIV failure patients and NIV success patients. Logistic regression analysis showed that RI, pH value, WBC and sputum excretion drainage were independent risk factors for NIV failure [RI: odds ratio (n OR) = 3.879, 95% confidence interval (95%n CI) was 1.258-11.963, n P = 0.018; pH value: n OR = 3.316, 95%n CI was 1.270-8.660, n P = 0.014; WBC: n OR = 3.684, 95%n CI was 1.172-11.581, n P = 0.026; sputum excretion drainage: n OR = 0.125, 95%n CI was 0.042-0.366, n P = 0.000]. The NIV failure risk prediction model based on the above independent risk factors had a good goodness of fit (n χ2 = 9.02, n P = 0.34). ROC curve analysis showed that the NIV failure risk prediction model had a high predictive value for the patients with AECOPD [the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.818±0.051, 95%n CI was 0.718-0.918, n P = 0.000].n Conclusions:If patients with AECOPD have relative contraindications of NIV but still insist on using NIV, further risk stratification of NIV failure is needed. For those with RI, pH value, WBC abnormalities and sputum excretion drainage, the risk of choosing NIV is significantly increased. We need to pay more attention to the change of the condition and switch to IPPV in time to avoid exacerbation of the condition.