A More Global Yuan

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  Demand for the renminbi in Hong Kong has led several senior officials, including Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury K.C. Chan and Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Chief Executive Norman T.L. Chan, to pay a visit to Beijing on October 29, asking the China Securities Regulatory Commission(CSRC) for support and exchanging views with CSRC Chairman Guo Shuqing.
  A senior CSRC official disclosed on November 2 that upon request of the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the CSRC is planning to further enlarge the investment quota for renminbi qualified foreign institutional investors (RQFII) by coordinating with the People’s Bank of China (PBC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
  Hong Kong appealed for another RQFII investment quota of 100 billion-200 billion yuan ($15.9 billion-31.8 billion), which has been supported by the CSRC. On November 13 the CSRC, PBC and SAFE agreed to increase the RQFII quota by 200 billion yuan($32.12 billion).
  Besides raising the investment quota, the commission will also consider further improving the RQFII system by expanding its investment scope and relaxing investment restrictions so as to allow more Hong Kong financial institutions to apply for the RQFII.
  Industrial insiders think expanding the RQFII investment quota and relaxing application qualifications will undoubtedly accelerate the capital account convertibility of the renminbi and promote the process of its internationalization.
  Hong Kong is the world’s largest renminbi offshore center, and the source of most of the present RQFII capital. According to figures from HKMA, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong had reached 550 billion yuan($87.44 billion) by the end of September. It is expected that as the renminbi is more internationalized, the amount of RQFII capital will increase steadily.
  Thirsty market
  This is the third and largest expansion of the RQFII.
  The CSRC and SAFE jointly launched the RQFII system at the end of 2011 with an initial quota of 20 billion yuan ($3.18 billion). Qualified fund management companies and securities companies are allowed to issue renminbi-denominated funds and invest them into the mainland capital market.
  Most of the first batch of RQFII products were launched at the end of March and were mainly invested into the bond market. Benefiting from relaxed money supplies and narrowing interest difference in the mainland market, these RQFII products have performed well.   Public figures from Hong Kong show that the average growth rate for the net value of the first batch of RQFII products is 1.2 percent.
  China raised the quota by 50 billion yuan($7.95 billion) in April, capping it at 70 billion yuan ($11.13 billion).
  Different from the first batch, the newly increased quota can be used to develop Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that are invested in the stock index of the A-share market. The decision was widely welcomed for satisfying the demand of institutional investors to track the performance of stocks in the mainland market.
  In July, the ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF, which China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (CAMHK) listed, was in high demand upon its availability on July 17. Later debuted RQFII products, such as CSOP A50 ETF, EFUND CSI100 ETF and HGI MSCI CN A, were also highly sought after.
  The approved quotas for the CSOP A50 ETF and the EFUND CSI100 ETF are 5 billion yuan ($794.91 million) and 2 billion yuan ($317.97 million) respectively. Since the capital raised during their initial public offerings had already reached the upper limit, both funds closed for purchase after their debut.
  On August 29, the SAFE raised the quota by 3 billion yuan ($46.95 million) for the EFUND CSI100 ETF, helping it open for purchase. On September 7, the CSOP A50 ETF also saw its quota rise by 2 billion yuan, which was soon digested by the market. On October 24, the CSOP A50 ETF suspended purchase again because its 7-billion-yuan($1.11 billion) quota had been used up.
  SAFE had approved 21 RQFIIs by September 30. The A-share market is a major source of income for RQFIIs. By November 5, the CSOP A50 ETF had issued 1.05 billion fund units, with a market value of 7.8 billion yuan ($1.24 billion). The ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF issued 221 million fund units, with a market value of 5.09 billion yuan ($809.22 million). The EFUND CSI100 ETF issued 116 million fund units, at a market value of 2.57 billion yuan ($408.59 million). The HGI MSCI CN A issued 244 million units, at a value of 1.94 billion yuan ($308.43 million). Therefore, since July 17, there have been 18 billion yuan ($2.86 billion) of offshore renminbi flowing into the A-share market via the RQFII.
  The RQFII funds are performing well in terms of investment returns. Open market figures show that all the RQFIIs are making money, with net value growing between 0.17 percent and 3.76 percent. The top three return makers are the EFUND CSI100 ETF, the CSOP A50 ETF and the ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF.   Due to their stable performance and high market demand, many RQFIIs are pressuring Hong Kong’s financial authorities to appeal to expand RQFII quotas. According to a report by Hong Kong Phoenix TV, Hong Kong financial authorities also think present RQFII should be further revised.
  At present, only fund management companies and insurance companies are qualified for the RQFII, and there are still limits on the investment proportion of stocks. Moreover, the 70-billion-yuan quota was too small compared with the huge offshore renminbi reserves in Hong Kong.
  Therefore Hong Kong’s financial officials had to seek help from the CSRC, requesting to increase the RQFII threshold.
  Toward internationalization
  Other good news from the CSRC is that the commission, in cooperation with Hong Kong financial authorities, is studying mutual recognition of cross-border funds.
  This policy will allow fund products recognized by supervising authorities from the mainland and Hong Kong to be listed on each other’s market without further recognition. Similar policies have been carried out for years in EU countries.
  If this policy is adopted, fund products from the mainland can be sold in Hong Kong and vice versa. The renminbi will become the leading currency in the capital markets of both places.
  According to a report issued by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the Untied States on October 22, the renminbi’s influence has been greatly enhanced and the renminbi has become the dominant reference currency in East Asia. In this region, seven currencies out of 10 are more closely linked with the renminbi than with the dollar.
  The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) issued a report on the same day saying that the current global climate favors the Chinese currency as both the U.S. dollar and the euro are under pressure and that global investors are looking for an alternative reserve currency. The RBS expects the renminbi to become fully convertible in the next five years, which will further globalize the currency.
  However, Guo Tianyong, a professor of finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, says the global economic recession cannot be the major driving force behind the internationalization of the renminbi.
  The internationalization of a currency depends on the world’s confidence in it, the convenience of currency settlement and its usage in global trade, says Guo.
  Wei Yanshen, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says the economic strength of a country dictates whether a currency goes international. Therefore, the internationalization of the renminbi should move forward based on China’s internal dynamics rather than by external factors like economic recession in the West.   China’s economic growth and the progress in multilateral trade have further improved the international status of the renminbi, says Wei. Since entering the WTO, China has been increasingly integrated in the global economy.
  Growing economic ties with other countries have increased the demand of the renminbi and pushed forward the process of its internationalization. Today, China takes up 22 percent of all manufacturing trade in East Asia and has become a regional trade center.
  As the world’s biggest exporter and a net creditor nation for more than a decade, and because of its economic strength and stable environment, China is in excellent shape to internationalize the renminbi.
  However, related Chinese departments have made steady progress in internationalizing the renminbi. At the end of February, China extended cross-border renminbi trade settlement to the whole country.
  In June, six ministries and commissions under the State Council jointly issued a list of renminbi settlement enterprises in export goods subject to special supervision. The CSRC also said it would further expand the pilot scale of RQFII and investment quotas, accelerating capital account convertibility of its currency.
  Wei adds that during the process of promoting renminbi internationalization, the renminbi settlement business for cross-border trade has shown powerful growth. However, China should be fully aware of the problems and risks associated with internationalizing its currency.
  For example, the acceptance of the renminbi by foreign traders should be further improved. Moreover, preventing risks and ensuring safe economic and financial operations are also important on the path to internationalize the renminbi.
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