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一月现象(January effect)在西方很受重视,众多的研究成果显示它在西方股市普遍存在。而在中国,这方面的研究成果不算太多。去年年初的时候有人似是而非地讲了一下中国大陆的一月现象,测算了一下历年一月份的涨跌,然后断定一月现象在A股不存在。一月现象也许在中国确实不存在,但这篇文章误解了一月现象的含义。一月现象只是说投资者可以在12月底买入,然后在一月通常有卖出获利的机会,而这个机会通常出现在上半月特别是第一周。同时一月现象还有一个作用,那就是一月份的走势通常对全年的走势有指导作用。
The January effect is highly regarded in the West, and many studies show that it is prevalent in the West. In China, the research results in this area are not too many. At the beginning of last year, someone casually talked about the January phenomenon in mainland China, measured the ups and downs of January in January, and concluded that the phenomenon of January did not exist in A shares. The January phenomenon may not really exist in China, but the article misunderstood the meaning of the January phenomenon. The January phenomenon simply means that investors can buy at the end of December and then usually have the opportunity to sell in January, a profit that typically occurs in the first half, and especially in the first week. At the same time, the January phenomenon has another effect. That is, the trend in January usually guides the whole year’s trend.