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[目的]探讨大连市区1991～2005年恶性肿瘤的发病趋势。[方法]计算病例数加权基础上的年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC),应用模型选择对数线性分析筛选显著的因素效应并获得最佳模型,作年龄-时期-队列发病分析。[结果]大连市区恶性肿瘤世界人口标化发病率的APC为1.51%(P<0.01),男性为0.90%(P>0.05),女性为2.43%(P<0.01)。与30～34岁相比,男女性35～39岁的相对危险度(RR)已分别升至2.111倍和1.729倍(P<0.001),至80～84岁上升到47.095倍和14.976倍。男性2001～2005年,女性1996～2000年与2001～2005年的RR分别为1991～1995年的1.232、1.128和1.420倍(P值均小于0.001);1936年出生队列的RR分别为1911年的0.623倍和0.811倍(P<0.001),其后逐渐降低,至1971年的0.027倍和0.094倍。1956～1971年出生女性的RR高于同期男性的2倍以上。[结论]大连市区恶性肿瘤发病存在人口老龄化和女性发病年轻化的趋势。
[Objective] To investigate the incidence of malignant tumors in Dalian from 1991 to 2005. [Methods] The annual percentage change (APC) was calculated based on the number of cases. The log-linear analysis was used to select the significant factor effects and obtain the best model for age-period-cohort analysis. [Results] The APC incidence of malignant tumors in Dalian was 1.51% (P <0.01), 0.90% for males and 2.43% for females (P <0.01). The relative risk (RR) of males and females 35-39 years old had risen to 2.111 times and 1.729 times (P <0.001) from that of 30-34 years old, and rose to 47.095 times and 14.976 times from 80-84 years old respectively. From 2001 to 2005, the RRs of women from 1996 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2005 were 1.232, 1.128 and 1.420 times respectively from 1991 to 1995 (P values were less than 0.001). The RR of birth cohorts in 1936 were 1911 0.623 times and 0.811 times (P <0.001), and then gradually decreased to 0.027 times and 0.094 times in 1971. The RR of women born in 1956-1971 was more than twice that of men in the same period. [Conclusion] The incidence of malignant tumors in Dalian urban population aging and the incidence of younger women trend.