中国是出生缺陷高发国家,出生缺陷不但是造成儿童残疾的重要原因,也日渐成为儿童死亡的主要原因。出生缺陷已成为全社会关注的重大公共卫生问题[1-2]。本研究以2002—2011年实际出生缺陷发生率构建GM(1,1)灰色模型,对2012—2015年数据进行预测,为逐步降低出生缺陷发生率,制定出生缺陷相关的政策、创造良好的人口环境提供依据。1资料与方法1.1资料来源数据来源于2003—2012年《中国 China is a country with high birth defects. Birth defects are not only an important cause of child disability, but also a major cause of child deaths. Birth defects have become the major public health concerns of the whole society [1-2]. In this study, GM (1,1) gray model was constructed based on the incidence of actual birth defects from 2002 to 2011, and the data of 2012-2015 were predicted. In order to gradually reduce the incidence of birth defects and formulate policies related to birth defects, a good population Environment to provide the basis. 1 Materials and Methods 1.1 Sources of data from 2003-2012 "China