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基于江苏省1952-2014年的数据对经济增长和物流业发展的关系进行了协整分析、建立误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数分析.研究发现,物流业规模与经济规模之间存在协整关系和物流业规模对经济规模的单向因果关系.误差修正模型说明物流业规模与经济规模的长期均衡关系对经济发展有显著的调整作用,得出结论物流规模应适度领先于经济规模,应追求物流与经济的可持续发展.
Based on the data of Jiangsu Province from 1952 to 2014, the co-integration analysis of the relationship between economic growth and logistics development was carried out, and the error correction model, the Granger causality test and the impulse response function analysis were established.It was found that between the logistics industry scale and the economic scale The cointegration relationship and the one-way causal relationship between logistics scale and economy scale.The error correction model shows that the long-term equilibrium relationship between logistics industry scale and economic scale has a significant adjustment effect on economic development, concluded that logistics should be modestly ahead of the economy Scale, should pursue the sustainable development of logistics and economy.