预期,源自现实,又改变现实。人是感性的,所以,短期预期往往非理性,并与现实呈现出常态化的偏离。然而,如果预期与现实发生系统性的重大偏离,那么,经济体系和金融市场的运行就将面临巨大风险。因此,引导市场预期不发生系统性偏离,是政策层前瞻指引和预期管理的重要目标。近期,美国和中国的经济政策,均发生了一系列戏剧性变化,市场预期也由此发生了频繁、剧烈的波动。我们认为,中美政策高层都在主动引导市场预期,避免系统性偏离的发生。预期纠偏是一个双向发力的过程,需要防止预期从一个极端迅速转向另一个极端。这个过程需要持续一段时间,但对实体经济和金融市场的长期稳定运行将非 Expected, from the reality, but also change the reality. People are sensual, so short-term expectations are often irrational and present a deviation from reality. However, if systematic and significant deviations from expectations are expected, the operation of the economic system and financial markets will be at great risk. Therefore, to guide the market is expected to occur without systematic deviation, is the policy-level guidance and expectations of an important goal of management. Recently, a series of dramatic changes have taken place in the economic policies of the United States and China. As a result, frequent and drastic market fluctuations are expected. In our opinion, the top Chinese policy leaders all take the initiative in guiding market expectations and avoiding systematic deviation. Correction is expected to be a two-way process of force that needs to be prevented from shifting from one extreme to the other. This process will take some time, but the long-term, stable operation of the real economy and financial markets will