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针对现有交通需求预测模型构建过程中忽视交通需求管理要求及缺乏政策敏感性等问题,建立了基于离散选择的交通需求预测模型并论证了其对交通需求管理的适应性. 建立包括个人社会经济特征、时间和价值3 个变量的私人小汽车-公交车离散选择模型,并通过停车收费和公交优先 2 种交通政策来评估模型的政策敏感性. 实证结果表明: 出行选择对停车收费政策敏感性不强,表现为 88. 41% 的出行者对停车收费政策不敏感; 出行选择对公交优先政策敏感性较强,表现为 67. 70% 的私家车出行者及 77. 02% 的公交车出行者对公交优先政策敏感. 基于离散选择模型的交通需求预测模型具有政策敏感性,在满足需求预测基本功能的同时对需求管理具有很好的适应性.
Aiming at the neglect of traffic demand management and lack of policy sensitivities in the construction of the existing traffic demand forecasting model, a traffic demand forecasting model based on discrete choice is established and its adaptability to traffic demand management is established. The system includes individual social economy Characteristics, time and value of the three variables of the private car - bus discrete selection model, and through parking fees and bus priority two kinds of transport policy to assess the model’s policy sensitivity.The empirical results show that: travel choice on the parking fee policy sensitivity Not strong, showing 88. 41% of travelers are not sensitive to the parking fee policy; travel options are more sensitive to the priority bus policy, showing 67. 70% of private car travelers and 77.2% of the bus travel Is sensitive to bus priority policy.Discrete choice model based traffic demand forecasting model has the policy sensitivity and meets the basic functions of demand forecasting and has good adaptability to demand management.