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2010年1季度数据基本符合预期。GDP高速增长,物价如期回落。11.9%的GDP增速,环比年率在11%左右,超过潜在GDP增速,经济呈现过热态势。GDP增速过热迹象明显2010年中国GDP增速11.9%,基本符合我们的预期值11.3%。虽然有基数影响,但是通过计算环比年率在11%左右,也超过了经济的潜在增长速度,说明经济已经过热。为防止经济的进一步过热,预计2季度将成为政策的密集期,我们预期可能出现既升值又升息的双紧缩政策,在经济和政策的博弈下,未来3-6个月,经济全年GDP增速呈现U型走势。三大产业
Q1 2010 data basically in line with expectations. GDP is growing at a high speed, and prices are falling on schedule. 11.9% of GDP growth, the chain annual rate of about 11%, exceeding the potential GDP growth, the economy showed an overheated trend. Obvious signs of overheating in GDP growth China’s GDP growth rate was 11.9% in 2010, basically in line with our expectation of 11.3%. Although there is a base effect, but by calculating the annual rate of around 11%, also exceeded the potential economic growth rate, indicating that the economy has overheated. In order to prevent the economy from further overheating, it is expected that the second quarter will become a period of intensive policies. We expect that there may be a dual austerity policy of both appreciation and interest rate increase. Under the economic and policy gambling, in the next 3-6 months, U-shaped growth trend. Three major industries