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基于1991-2015年的统计数据,使用计量经济方法从宏观上研究经济发展、人均受教育年限、城镇化、档案开放度及《中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例》实施对国家综合档案馆档案利用的影响。结果发现:(1)国家综合档案馆档案利用量与经济发展、人均受教育年限、城镇化、档案开放之间存在长期均衡关系,但存在人均受教育年限、城镇化发展和档案开放在档案利用方面的“深度失灵”;(2)人口平均受教育年限是档案利用的格兰杰原因;(3)《条例》的颁布和实施对各级综合档案馆档案利用的影响并不显著。基于上述研究结论,提出了相应的对策建议。
Based on the statistics of 1991-2015, using econometric methods to study the macroeconomic development, per capita years of education, urbanization, openness of archives and the implementation of the “Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Open Government Information” influences. The results show that: (1) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the utilization of archives and the economic development, average years of education per capita, urbanization and opening up of archives in national comprehensive archives, but there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between average utilization of archives and the number of years of education, urbanization, (2) the average age of the population is the Granger reason for the utilization of the files; (3) the promulgation and implementation of the “Regulations” have no significant effect on the utilization of the archives of the comprehensive archives at all levels. Based on the above conclusions, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.