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建立了一种综合利用航天电子设备分系统可靠性信息和试验数据以及整机系统试验数据的Bayes可靠性评估方法.该方法利用最大熵方法融合分系统可靠性信息,推导了从分系统可靠性矩到系统可靠性矩的计算公式,然后建立了基于继承因子ρ的混合β先验分布,结合整机系统试验数据确定后验分布,最后,基于后验分布推断航天电子设备可靠性.采用该方法对航天电子设备可靠性进行了评估,当整机系统试验数据为240次时,航天电子设备在置信水平0.70的情况下可靠度可达到0.9991,所要求的整机系统试验次数比经典方法约降低了4/5.
A Bayesian reliability evaluation method based on the reliability information and test data of subsystem of aerospace electronics and the experimental data of the whole system is established.This method uses the maximum entropy method to fuse the reliability information of subsystem, Then the formula of the system reliability moment is established, then the mixed β prior distribution based on the inheritance factor ρ is established, and the posterior distribution is determined by the whole system test data. Finally, the reliability of aerospace electronic equipment is deduced based on the posterior distribution. Methods The reliability of aerospace electronics equipment was evaluated. When the whole system test data is 240 times, the reliability of the aerospace electronics equipment can reach 0.9991 with the confidence level of 0.70. The required number of whole system tests is lower than that of the classical method Reduced by 4/5.