镍价在8月底重回万六美元关键位置支撑。宏观面上,全球经济复苏乏力,给金属市场蒙上阴影。基本面上,镍市过剩量增加等因素均给市场带来一定压力。考虑技术强势和短期的宽松政策预期,笔者谨慎看好镍市9月份行情。行情回顾前8个月,国际镍价总体疲弱。2月初,镍价在22000美元/吨附近见顶,随后一路下行,连续跌了六个月整。原先较为坚实的支撑位16000美元在7月中下旬告破,随后跌势趋缓,镍价在15300美元一线整固后,开始反弹。8月下旬镍价放量向上突破60日均线,随后继续盘整。镍价表现弱于其他基本金属,前8个月累计跌幅约为13%,而其他有色金属方面,8月底。铜价与2011年底基本持平,铝累计下跌6%,锡则累计上涨7%。造成镍价持续走低的原因,一是全球经济疲弱,二是镍市基本面持续暗淡。从市场指标来看,库存压力很大,注销仓单有亮点,量仓在三季度有所放大,我们认为市场对镍市关注度增加,可谨慎 Nickel prices in the end of August to regain the key position of 10,000 dollars support. On the macro side, the global economic recovery is sluggish and cast a shadow over the metal market. Fundamentals, the nickel market surplus and other factors have brought some pressure on the market. Taking into account the technical strength and short-term easing expectations, I cautiously optimistic nickel market in September. In the first 8 months of the market review, the international nickel price was generally weak. In early February, the price of nickel peaked at around US $ 22,000 / tonne and subsequently dived all the way down for six consecutive months. Earlier solid support at $ 16,000 was crushed in mid-to-late July and the decline slowed down. Nickel started to rebound after consolidating in the $ 15,300 line. In late August, the price of nickel pushed above the 60-day moving average and then continued to consolidate. Nickel price weaker than the other base metals, the first eight months, the cumulative decline of about 13%, while other non-ferrous metals, the end of August. Copper prices basically flat with the end of 2011, aluminum total fell 6%, tin has risen 7%. Nickel prices continued to cause lower prices, one is the global economic weakness, and second, the fundamentals of the nickel market continued to bleak. From the market indicators, a lot of pressure on stocks, canceled warehouse receipts have bright spots, warehouse volume has been enlarged in the third quarter, we think the market is more concerned about the nickel market can be cautious