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以赞比亚穆利亚希露天矿边坡为工程背景,在岩石力学试验以及现场勘察测绘数据的基础上,构建了以岩石单轴抗压强度、岩石质量指标和节理调查统计数据为输入参数的概率统计模型,并采用卡方检验对模型进行了吻合度检验。在广义Hoek-Brown准则的基础上,利用MATLAB编程及蒙特卡洛随机分析方法,由输入参数模拟获取节理岩体强度及变形参数的概率分布,得到各参数的取值范围(最小值/最大值)以及平均值、标准差等统计值。采用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数分析了强度及变形参数与各输入参数之间的相关关系。结合边坡工程实例,从破坏概率角度评价了该边坡工程的稳定性状态。该方法可充分考虑节理岩体参数的不确定性和变异性,可为实际工程安全决策提供重要的参考依据。
Taking the Mulliabah open pit slope in Zambia as the engineering background, based on the rock mechanics test and on-site surveying and mapping data, the probability of rock uniaxial compressive strength, rock quality index and joint survey data is taken as input parameter Statistical model, and the chi-square test was used to test the model. Based on the generalized Hoek-Brown criterion, using MATLAB programming and Monte-Carlo stochastic analysis, the probability distributions of the jointed rock mass strength and deformation parameters are obtained from the input parameters. The range of the parameters (minimum / maximum ) And the average, standard deviation and other statistics. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between strength and deformation parameters and each input parameter. Combined with the slope engineering example, the stability status of the slope engineering is evaluated from the probability of failure. This method can fully consider the uncertainty and variability of parameters of jointed rock mass, which can provide important reference for practical project safety decision.