在研究基于时间序列的贝叶斯水质指标预测方法的基础上,建立了基于贝叶斯方法的水质等级预测模型,同时利用济南市第二中学的样本数据对该方法与模型进行了有效性验证;在此基础上,对山东省黄河流域周围的8个主要大型水库进行了水质等级实例预测及可视化展示,为城市水质监管部门避免或减少饮用水污染提供了清晰直观、科学有效的技术途径。 Based on the study of Bayesian water quality index forecasting method based on time series, the water quality grade forecasting model based on Bayesian method was established, and the validity of the method and model was validated by using the sample data from Jinan No.2 Middle School On this basis, eight major large reservoirs around the Yellow River Basin in Shandong Province were predicted and visualized as examples of water quality levels, which provided a clear, intuitive, scientific and effective technical approach for urban water quality supervision departments to avoid or reduce drinking water pollution.