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为了从动态视角分析中国科技创新是否支撑中国经济增长,该文提出了Network DEA-Malmquist指数法,建立全要素生产率、技术进步、技术效率改进和各阶段的效率变化等各种效率指标之间的联系。对中国省级数据的实证研究结果表明,第一阶段技术进步是推动第一阶段效率变化的主要原因,第二阶段技术效率改进是推动第二阶段效率变化的主要原因;科技创新对中国经济增长的支撑作用较低。技术进步、第二阶段的效率变化差距是导致东中部全要素生产率差距的主要原因,对东西部也同样如此。仅上海、天津、江苏、北京、广东全要素生产率呈现正增长;TFP以及两个阶段效率在省际之间呈现出“强者恒强、弱者恒弱”的变化趋势。新研究方法将全要素生产率增长的黑箱打开,有利于提高政策的针对性。
In order to analyze whether China’s science and technology innovation supports China’s economic growth from a dynamic perspective, this paper proposes the Network DEA-Malmquist index method to establish various efficiency indicators such as total factor productivity, technological progress, technological efficiency improvement and various stages of efficiency change contact. The empirical study on Chinese provincial data shows that the first phase of technological progress is the main reason for promoting the first phase of efficiency change. The second phase of technological efficiency improvement is the main reason for promoting the second phase of efficiency change. The innovation of science and technology on China’s economic growth The supporting effect is lower. Technological progress, the second stage of the efficiency change gap is the main reason leading to the central and eastern part of the total factor productivity gap, the same is true of the East and West. Only TFP, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Beijing and Guangdong showed positive growth of total factor productivity. The TFP and the efficiency of the two phases show a trend of “strong strong, weak weak constant” among the provinces. The new research method opens up the black box of total factor productivity growth, which is conducive to improving policy pertinence.