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理论分析显示广告支出与消费增长相互依存,广告可以通过诱导消费者的潜在需求从而刺激消费,消费增长也会促使企业增加广告支出。笔者在多变量VAR模型的基础上,采用中国1981年～2009年度数据,运用协整检验发现:广告支出、城市居民消费支出和农村居民消费支出之间存在某种长期均衡关系,广告支出是城市和农村消费增长的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,广告对消费的刺激效应不断下降,呈现出长期均衡的趋势。从宏观整体的视角来看,企业广告长期投放应保持理性,广告支出应维持在相对稳定合理的状态。
Theoretical analysis shows that advertising expenditure and consumption growth are interdependent. Advertising can stimulate consumption by inducing the potential demand of consumers, and consumption growth also causes enterprises to increase their advertising expenditures. On the basis of multivariate VAR model, using the data of China from 1981 to 2009, the author uses cointegration test to find out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between advertising expenditures, urban residents ’consumption expenditures and rural residents’ consumption expenditures, and the advertising expenditures are urban And the Granger cause of rural consumption growth. Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the impact of advertising on consumer spending continued to decline, showing a long-term equilibrium trend. From a macro perspective, long-term business advertising should remain rational, advertising spending should be maintained at a relatively stable and reasonable state.