目前在二代棉铃虫Heliothis armigera(H(?)bner)发生量的预报方法中,多是参考越冬基数作长期预报,根据麦田中一代幼虫密度作中期预报。但由于挖蛹和查一代幼虫费工多,调查的密度误差较大,不能确切地反映自然界中虫口基数的大小,所以预报准确率较低。自1983年以来,我们采用9月下旬至10月上旬黑光灯诱蛾量和9月份气温两因子作翌年二代 At present, most of the prediction methods for the occurrence of Heliothis armigera (H?? Bner) in the second generation are long-term forecasts based on the overwintering baselines and are based on the medium-term forecast of the density of the first generation larvae in the field. However, due to digging pupa and check the generation of larvae more labor, the investigation of the density error is larger, does not accurately reflect the size of insect population base, so the forecast accuracy is low. Since 1983, we have adopted the black light trap in late September to early October and the temperature in September as the second generation of the following year