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童氏图版是在大量的实际数据统计基础上得到的,对于国内的某一具体油田不一定适合。对童氏图版采收率预测进行敏感性分析,结果表明童氏经验系数由7.5变化至5.25时,采收率预测误差达到20%。在水驱油田开发中后期,大量的实际生产数据可以对童氏曲线进行拟合,从而得到一个新的适合某一特定油田的童氏图版,在对图版进行修正的过程中,由于童氏曲线有两个待定系数,用一组动态数据无法拟合出新的童氏图版。基于迭代的思想,本文提出了一种童氏图版采收率预测的动态修正方法,先假定一个油田最终采收率值,用动态生产数据拟合出新的童氏图版经验系数,得到新的采收率预测值,设定某一迭代精度,当采收率预测结果满足精度要求即为最终的采收率预测结果。实践证明这种新的童氏图版采收率预测方法能比较准确的预测最终采收率值,更符合油田的实际情况。
Tong’s chart is based on a large number of actual data statistics obtained for a specific domestic oil field is not necessarily suitable. Sensitivity analysis on the recovery of Tongshen plate shows that the prediction error of recovery is 20% when Tong’s empirical coefficient changes from 7.5 to 5.25. In the middle and later stages of the development of the waterflooding oilfield, a large number of actual production data can be fitted to the Tong’s curve so as to obtain a new Tong’s plate suitable for a particular oilfield. In the process of correcting the plate, There are two pending coefficients, with a set of dynamic data can not be fitted out a new Tong’s chart. Based on the idea of iteration, this paper presents a dynamic correction method for the prediction of recovery of Tong’s plate. First, the final recovery value of an oilfield is assumed. The new empirical coefficient of Tong’s plot is fitted with the dynamic production data to obtain a new Prediction of recovery rate, set a certain iteration accuracy, when the recovery rate prediction results meet the accuracy requirements of the final recovery rate prediction results. Practice has proved that this new Tongsituan recovery prediction method can predict the final recovery value more accurately, more in line with the actual situation of the oil field.