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为评价兰州市城关区细菌性痢疾日发病人数与气象因素的关系,对该区2005—2010年气象因素与细菌性痢疾的日发病人数进行相关性分析、主成分分析和时间序列半参数广义相加模型(GAM)分析。结果显示,该区的细菌性痢疾发病人数以夏季最多;日发病人数与各气象因子均有相关性(P<0.001);平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速、日照时间、平均气压对细菌性痢疾的影响分别滞后5、2、5、0、0 d,每升高一个IQR,细菌性痢疾的RR值分别为1.216 1,1.063 6,1.035 3,1.061 8,0.677 9,即日发病人数分别增加21.61%,6.36%,3.53%,6.18%和减少32.21%。提示兰州市城关区的细菌性痢疾发病呈明显的季节性,高温最易引起发病,主成分分析建立的方程可以对细菌性痢疾的日发病人数进行预测。
In order to evaluate the relationship between the incidence of bacterial dysentery and the weather in Chengguan District, Lanzhou City, the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacterial dysentery in the area from 2005 to 2010 was analyzed. The principal component analysis and time series semiparametric generalized phase Add model (GAM) analysis. The results showed that the incidence of bacterial dysentery in this area was the highest in summer; the number of daily incidence was related to each meteorological factor (P <0.001); the average temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed, sunshine time and mean air pressure Respectively. The RR of bacillary dysentery was 1.216,1.063 6,1.035 3,1.061 8,0.6779, respectively. The number of patients with immediate onset increased 21.61 %, 6.36%, 3.53%, 6.18% and 32.21% respectively. It is suggested that the incidence of bacterial dysentery in Chengguan District of Lanzhou City is obviously seasonal. The incidence of bacterial dysentery is most likely to be caused by high temperature. The equation established by principal component analysis can predict the number of daily incidence of bacterial dysentery.