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争取绿洲向稳定、有序化方向发展是干旱区人类生存和发展所追求的基础目标。本研究以额济纳绿洲为研究对象,将绿洲系统分为自然资源环境子系统、社会经济子系统及自然灾害子系统,应用粗糙集与灰色理论,建立绿洲稳定性评价指标体系,对1990年-2008年的绿洲稳定性做了综合评价,结果发现:①研究时段内,影响额济纳绿洲稳定性的最重要的3个指标依次为地下水水位埋深、年降水量与狼心山径流量;②研究时段内,若以理论划分2004年为界,1990年-2004年绿洲稳定性呈明显的波动趋势,2005年-2008年绿洲稳定性呈平稳略上升趋势;若以黑河分水2000年为界,1990年-2000年绿洲稳定性指数值呈递减趋势,2001年-2008年却呈明显增加趋势;③绿洲稳定性是一个多因素综合体,单个指标的好坏只能在某方面影响绿洲的稳定性。
Efforts to seek a stable and orderly development of oases are the basic goals pursued by the survival and development of mankind in arid zones. This research takes Ejina Oasis as the research object, divides the oasis system into the natural resources environment subsystem, the social economy subsystem and the natural disaster subsystem, and establishes the oasis stability evaluation index system by applying rough set theory and gray theory. From 1990 to 2008 During the research period, the three most important indexes affecting the stability of Ejina Oasis are groundwater table depth, annual precipitation and wolfinson trail runoff; ② study period If the theoretical division of 2004 is bounded, the stability of oasis showed a clear trend of fluctuation in 1990-2004, and the stability of oasis in 2005-2008 showed a slight and steady upward trend. If the Heihe River was bounded in 2000 as a boundary, 1990 From 2000 to 2008, the stability index of oasis showed a decreasing trend. The stability of oasis was a multi-factor complex. The stability of oasis can only influence the stability of oasis in some aspects .