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气候变化是全球变化的重要部分,它可以改变区域乃至全球的水文循环的现状,本文以鄱阳湖流域为定量评价了气候变化对该区域水文循环的影响。文章首先分析了鄱阳湖流域1973年～2002年间的气候变化,在此基础上构建了如果气候变化按照目前的趋势发展未来可能出现的3种气候情景,最后应用陆地表面模型VIC水循环模式模拟了不同情景下的径流变化,结果表明如果气候变化按照目前的趋势发展,鄱阳湖流域的水量30年、60年、90年后(相对于1983年)将可能增加11.7%、25.08%和39.06%,而且因为径流的增加幅度最大的情况恰好出现在每年径流峰值时段(汛期),所以鄱阳湖发生洪灾的危险性将可能增大。研究气候变化背景下鄱阳湖流域水文要素的变化及其趋势对于该区域水文水资源的开发利用、规划管理有着重要的现实意义。
Climate change is an important part of global change. It can change the current situation of the regional and even global hydrological cycle. This paper uses the Poyang Lake Basin as a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in the region. The paper first analyzes the climate change in Poyang Lake Basin from 1973 to 2002, then builds up three possible climate scenarios in the future if the climate change develops according to the current trend. Finally, the surface water model VIC is used to simulate the different climate changes The results show that if climate change develops according to the current trend, the water volume in Poyang Lake Basin will increase by 11.7%, 25.08% and 39.06% after 30 years, 60 years and 90 years (relative to 1983), and Because the largest increase in runoff happens to occur during the annual runoff peak (flood season), the risk of flooding in Poyang Lake may increase. Studying the changes and trends of hydrological elements in Poyang Lake Basin under the background of climate change has important practical significance for the development, utilization and planning management of hydrological and water resources in this area.