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根据对潜在油气田数目和规模的估计,再结合以对地质风险率的估算(当然也可能不存在),可有效地评价一组地质上互相关联但尚未经检验的勘探区的未发现油气的储量。油气田规模的分布曲线是根据以下三点绘制的:(1)地质上相似的聚集带(Play 一般译为生产层、勘探层。本文作者把它作为一群油气田勘探区,它们在生油岩、储集层以及控制油气产状的圈闭方面在地质上具有相似性,故此译为聚集带—译注)中已知油气田的储量;(2)对一个聚集带内各个勘探区的评价;(3)对聚集带中勘探区的面积、油气藏的参数以及潜在的油气分布的模拟。油气田规模的分布曲线,人为地截去了两端,即实际的最小端以及在该聚集带中可合理期望的最大端。潜在油气田的可能数目是根据算得的和假定的未经检验勘探区的数目,再结合以成功率一起估计的,或者,是根据看起来相像的油气田的密度估计的。聚集带存在的机率也就是至少一个油气田(其规模至少要相当于所评价的油气田规模分布曲线中最小的油气田规模)存在的机率。由蒙特卡洛模拟方式发展的最终评价曲线,描绘了可采油气潜量的可能范围与概率的关系。
Based on the estimation of the number and size of potential oil and gas fields combined with an estimate of the geo-hazard rate (which may, of course, also be absent), it is possible to effectively evaluate the undetected reserves of a group of geologically interconnected but unexamined exploration areas . The distribution curve of oil and gas fields is plotted according to the following three points: (1) Geologically similar gathering belts (Play is generally translated as production layer and exploration layer.) The author uses this as a group of oil and gas field exploration areas, (2) the evaluation of various exploration zones within an agglomeration zone; and (3) the evaluation of various exploration zones in a gathering zone; The area of the exploration area in the agglomeration zone, the parameters of the reservoir and the simulation of the potential hydrocarbon distribution. The profile of oil and gas field profiles artificially truncated both ends, the actual minimum end and the largest end reasonably expected in the agglomeration zone. The potential number of potential fields depends on the calculated and assumed number of unexplored exploration areas, combined together with the success rate, or on the density of seemingly similar fields. The probability of the existence of the agglomeration zone is also the probability that at least one oil and gas field (at least the size of the smallest of the evaluated oil and gas field scale distribution curves) exists. The final evaluation curve, developed by the Monte Carlo simulation, depicts the probabilistic range of probable hydrocarbon potential.