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时变参数模型和结构突变模型结果显示债务对经济增长的拉动作用存在度的限制,12%的债务负担率可以看成是债务“增长规模”的下限;政府资产负债框架下情景模拟不同债务负担率下政府债务的违约风险,发现当债务负担率高于55%后,政府债务的违约风险将高于10%,由此探知了债务“安全规模”的上限;从而得到债务规模的“最优规模”区间,即12%-55%。
The results of time-varying parameter model and structural catastrophe model show that debt has a limit on the pulling effect of economic growth. The debt burden ratio of 12% can be regarded as the lower limit of debt ’growth scale ’. The situation simulations under the framework of government assets and liabilities Debt default rate of government debt under the risk of default and found that when the debt burden ratio is higher than 55%, the default risk of government debt will be higher than 10%, thus exploring the ceiling of debt “security size ” to get the debt scale “Optimal size ” range, that is, 12% -55%.