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本文量化了理性投机和从众投机行为,利用上海市月度与年度数据构建了参数模型与变参数模型,并引入了住宅供给未转化率指标的预警准则。研究显示上海住宅市场存在不同类型的投机泡沫;理性投机对房价影响效应更大,尤其2005—2007年影响力呈上升趋势;而警情分析显示,上海住宅市场2002年就存在警情,2005年后警情趋向严重化。
This paper quantifies the rational speculation and speculative behavior from the public, the use of monthly and annual data in Shanghai to build a parametric model and variable parameter model, and the introduction of non-conversion rate indicators of residential supply early warning criteria. The research shows that there are different types of speculative bubbles in the Shanghai residential market; the rational speculation has a greater effect on the housing prices, especially in 2005-2007; the analysis of police intelligence shows that there is a police intelligence in Shanghai’s residential market in 2002; After the police tend to be serious.