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基于2000-2011年我国30个省区的面板数据建立PVAR模型,通过脉冲-响应分析、方差分解,验证了地区公益性地质调查投资存在空间上的溢出效应。研究表明:(1)地质调查投资与经济产出、固定资产投资之间存在双向互动关系。地质调查投资对经济产出的溢出效应受相关参与变量缺失及经济内生性影响,正向影响关系并不显著。而地质调查投资与固定资产投资间显著的正向关系。(2)地质调查投资与经济产出之间存在非对称的互动关系,未来期间地质调查投资对经济产出呈正向经济溢出效应。但经济产出对地质调查投资的正向冲击具有不稳定性,这种不稳定性主要受我国经济体制的影响。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2011, a PVAR model was established. The spillover effect of regional public welfare geological survey investment was verified through pulse-response analysis and variance decomposition. The research shows that: (1) there is a two-way interactive relationship between investment in geological survey and economic output and investment in fixed assets. The spillover effects of geological survey investment on economic output are not significantly affected by the lack of relevant participating variables and economic endogenous effects. The geological survey investment and fixed assets investment between the significant positive relationship. (2) There is an asymmetrical interaction between the geological survey investment and economic output, and the geological survey investment will have a positive economic spillover effect on economic output in the future. However, the positive impact of economic output on investment in geological surveys is not stable. Such instability is mainly affected by China’s economic system.