当前,环境污染仍为中国最突出的问题之一,而降低制造业完全能耗强度是减少消耗及污染的重要途径。本文基于投入产出非线性优化理论,以制造业完全能耗强度最小为目标,并以18个行业最终需求为决策变量,构建了一个完全能耗强度非线性优化模型,特引入了进出口系数等约束条件,并基于已有投入产出表等数据,预测调整模型的相关系数。在此基础上,设计了三个方案与两个情景,并运用粒子群算法求解模型。结果表明:2015年中国制造业完全能耗强度最小值区间为0.7823-0.9048tce/万元,相比2010年,下降率区间为8.9%-21.31%。在高方案情景2下,可实现制造业完全能耗强度降低20%的目标。为实现该目标,应促进中低能耗制造业发展、降低高能耗制造业的完全能耗量、适当提高消费和进口系数并降低投资和出口系数。本文既有利于政府部门制定科学系统的节能减排政策,也有利于深化能源经济与管理理论。 At present, environmental pollution is still one of the most prominent problems in China. Reducing the intensity of complete energy consumption in manufacturing industry is an important way to reduce consumption and pollution. Based on the nonlinear optimization theory of input-output, this paper aims to minimize the total energy consumption intensity of manufacturing industry and takes the final demand of 18 industries as the decision-making variable to construct a nonlinear optimization model of total energy intensity. The import and export coefficient And other constraints, and based on the existing input-output tables and other data to predict the adjustment model of the correlation coefficient. On this basis, three schemes and two scenarios are designed, and the particle swarm algorithm is used to solve the model. The result shows that the minimum value range of total energy consumption of China’s manufacturing industry in 2015 is 0.7823-0.9048tce / ten thousand yuan, compared with 8.9% -21.31% in 2010. Under High Scenario 2, the goal of a 20% reduction in the total energy intensity of manufacturing can be achieved. In order to achieve this goal, we should promote the development of low and medium-energy manufacturing, reduce the total energy consumption of high-energy-consumption manufacturing, appropriately increase consumption and import coefficients and reduce investment and export coefficients. This article is conducive to government departments to formulate a scientific system of energy-saving emission reduction policies, but also conducive to deepen the energy economy and management theory.