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[目的]评价HEC-HMS分布式水文模型在干旱区资料稀缺内陆河流域洪水模拟预报中的适用性。[方法]以乌鲁木齐流域上游为例,结合流域实测水文气象资料,率定模型参数、建立并验证HEC-HMS模型。[结果]1957—2009年乌鲁木齐河上游流域13场历史洪水模拟中,HEC-HMS模型洪水模拟确定系数R2取值分布在0.67~0.87之间,洪峰流量模拟相对误差均小于15.6%,模拟精度较高。[结论]建立的HEC-HMS模型有效,模型参数的率定合理以及HEC-HMS模型在干旱数据稀缺山区流域洪水模拟中具有较好的适用性。
[Objective] The purpose was to evaluate the applicability of HEC-HMS distributed hydrological model in simulating and forecasting floods of inland river basins in arid areas. [Method] Taking the upper reaches of Urumqi Basin as an example, the HEC-HMS model was established and validated by combining the observed hydrological and meteorological data in the watershed with the model parameters calibrated. [Result] During the historical flood simulation of the upper reaches of the Urumqi River from 1957 to 2009, the R2 values of the HEC-HMS model flood simulation coefficients were between 0.67 and 0.87, and the relative errors of the flood peak flow were all less than 15.6% high. [Conclusion] The established HEC-HMS model is effective, the rationality of the model parameters and the HEC-HMS model have good applicability in flood simulation of mountainous watersheds with scarce drought data.