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为分析我国国际收支顺差长期存在的原因,本文基于货币主义的分析框架和中国的经济现实,从货币需求和中央银行冲销操作的角度进行了研究。实证研究结果表明,自动调整机制无法纠正国际收支的失衡。两个可能的原因是,较高的货币需求收入弹性与中央银行对增加的大部分国外资产的有效冲销。
In order to analyze the reasons for the long-term existence of China’s international balance of payments surplus, this paper conducts research from the perspective of monetary demand and central bank sterilisation operations based on the analytical framework of monetaryism and China’s economic reality. The empirical research results show that the auto-adjustment mechanism cannot correct the balance of international payments. The two possible reasons are the higher elasticity of income demand for money and the effective write-off of the central bank against most of the increased foreign assets.