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本文采用地震地质,地震活动性,区域应力场相结合的综合分析方法,来寻求近期地震危险区的静态标志。又以中小地震活动图象,局部应力场方向及初动符号矛盾比的变化,强地震的重复性等作为确定潜在源区的动态因素。根据地震活动强弱交替的客观规律,探讨了今后地震活动的总趋势。最后提出对河北省及其邻近地区5—10年危险区的看法。
In this paper, a comprehensive analysis method combining seismic geology, seismic activity and regional stress field is used to seek the static sign of the recent seismic hazard zone. In the meantime, the dynamic factors of potential source area are taken as the change of the contradictory ratio between the images of small and medium earthquakes, the direction of local stress field and the initial sign and the repeatability of strong earthquakes. According to the objective laws of alternating seismic intensity, the general trend of seismic activity in the future is discussed. Finally, it puts forward the opinion of the dangerous area of 5-10 years in Hebei Province and its neighboring areas.