论文部分内容阅读
利用江浙沪地区1644～1949年洪涝灾害数据库,基于年受灾县次,对该地区历史重大洪涝灾害年进行了辨识,并以历史重大洪涝灾害为情景,对其重现于2010年的人口和GDP物理暴露量进行分析,得到以下结论:(1)按受灾县次划分,1644～1949年江浙沪地区重大洪涝灾害频率在50～100年一遇的为1670年、1683年、1804年;100～300年一遇的为1823年、1849年;300年一遇的为1931年;(2)重大洪涝灾害暴露区主要集中于长江三角洲地区;(3)6次重大洪涝灾害情景下,人口物理暴露量基本超过2010年该区人口总量的40%,而GDP物理暴露量则几乎超过了其总量的50%;(4)江苏受灾最为明显,上海受灾幅度波动最大,尤其是在100年一遇洪涝灾害前后受灾影响差距很大,浙江受灾影响相对稳定;(5)该区人口、GDP物理暴露量并不一定与受灾县次呈典型的正相关关系,可能与其人口、经济分布格局等因素有关。
Based on the flood disaster database of Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Shanghai Region from 1644 to 1949, based on the number of disaster-affected counties in the year, the year of major historical floods in the region was identified. Taking the historical flood disasters as the scene, the population and GDP (1) According to the number of affected counties, the frequency of major flood disasters in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai from 1644 to 1949 was between 1670, 1683 and 1804 in the frequency of 50 to 100 years; The year of 3003 was 1823 and 1849, the year of 1930 was once in 300 years. The exposure of major flood and flood disasters was mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta. (3) The population was physically exposed in 6 major floods and floods The amount basically exceeded 40% of the total population of the district in 2010, while the physical exposure to GDP almost exceeded 50% of the total. (4) Jiangsu was the most affected and Shanghai suffered the most fluctuation, especially in 100 years (5) Physical exposure to population and GDP in this area is not necessarily positively correlated with the affected counties, which may be related to the population, economic distribution pattern and other factors related.