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自20世纪50年代以来,对普雷维什—辛格命题(即贸易条件恶化论)的争论从未中断过。进入21世纪,仍有必要对发展中国家贸易条件的变化进行重新检验。由于一些新兴发展中大国的迅速发展对原料等初级产品产生了巨大的需求,全球进入了自然资源高价时代。近年来,初级产品的贸易条件得到了显著改善,对普雷维什—辛格假说提出了新的挑战。为此,本文尝试回答普雷维什—辛格假说在新的国际经济背景下是否仍然适用的问题。本文认为,普雷维什—辛格命题所揭示的是一种“长期性和总体性”的历史性趋势。由于大宗商品价格往往具有相当大的不确定性和波动性,近年来其贸易条件的改善显然是短期的、暂时的和阶段性的,不足以作为长期判断的基础。普雷维什—辛格命题至今仍具有适用性和现实意义。
The controversy over the Prebisch-Singh proposition (the deterioration of the terms of trade) has never ceased since the 1950s. In the 21st century, it is still necessary to re-examine the changes in the terms of trade in developing countries. Due to the tremendous demand for raw materials and other primary products due to the rapid development of some emerging developing countries, the world has entered a period of high natural resources. In recent years, the terms of trade of primary products have been significantly improved, posing new challenges to the Prebisch-Singh hypothesis. For this reason, this article attempts to answer the question of whether the Prebisch-Singh hypothesis still applies in the new international economic context. This paper argues that the Prebisch-Singh proposition reveals a historic trend of “long-term and totalitarianism.” As commodity prices tend to be quite volatile and volatile, the improvement in their terms of trade in recent years is obviously short-term, temporary and phased and not sufficient as a basis for long-term judgment. Prebisch-Singh proposition still has the applicability and practical significance.