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以土地利用变化和气候变化为特征的全球和区域环境变化及其影响已经成为国际社会和公众关注的焦点,同时也是土地科学、全球变化科学和全球生态学关注的关键问题。由于土地、气候和森林生态系统之间存在着复杂而密切的关系,土地利用变化和气候变化将不可避免地对森林结构和功能产生重要影响。如何采用合理的适应措施降低这些变化可能带来的损失,是目前全球变化研究亟待解决的问题之一。因此,研究土地利用和气候变化对森林的单独及综合影响具有重要的科学意义。本文综合利用基于主体的土地利用模型(ABM/LUCC)、生态系统过程模型(PnET-Ⅱ)以及森林景观动态模型(LANDIS-Ⅱ)构建了综合模拟研究框架,选择森林类型多样且具有长期观测数据积累的江西省泰和县为研究区,模拟并对比了土地利用和气候变化组合情景下未来森林地上总生物量的变化差异。结果表明:(1)土地利用变化对泰和县森林地上总生物量的影响比气候变化所带来的影响更加显著。研究区森林地上总生物量在有土地利用变化干扰的情景下与RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5单独的气候情景下相比分别减少33.13%、32.92%和32.42%;(2)尽管未来气候变化可能有利于森林地上总生物量的积累,但土地利用变化将使森林地上总生物量显著减少,并将抵消气候变化带来的正效应;(3)本文提出的综合模拟研究框架可以很好地模拟土地利用和气候变化对森林生态系统的影响,可为提升和优化人工林结构和功能、开展可持续森林管理提供科学建议。
Global and regional environmental changes characterized by land-use change and climate change and their impacts have become the focus of attention of the international community and the general public. They are also the key issues of concern to Land Science, Global Change Science and Global Ecology. Due to the complex and close relationship between land, climate and forest ecosystems, land-use change and climate change will inevitably have a significant impact on forest structure and function. How to reduce the potential loss caused by these changes with reasonable adaptation measures is one of the most urgent problems to be solved in the study of global change. Therefore, studying the individual and integrated impacts of land use and climate change on forests is of important scientific significance. In this paper, a comprehensive simulation framework is constructed based on ABM / LUCC, PnET-II and LANDIS-II. The data of different forest types with long-term observation data The accumulation of Taihe County, Jiangxi Province, is the study area, which simulates and compares the difference of total biomass on the future forest land under the combination of land use and climate change. The results showed that: (1) The impact of land use change on total biomass of forest land in Taihe County was more significant than that of climate change. Total biomass of forest land in the study area decreased by 33.13%, 32.92% and 32.42% respectively compared with those under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the case of interference with land-use change; (2) Although the future climate change May contribute to the accumulation of total biomass in forest land, but the change in land use will significantly reduce the total biomass on forest land and offset the positive effect of climate change; (3) The comprehensive simulation framework proposed in this paper can well Simulating the impact of land use and climate change on forest ecosystems can provide scientific advice for enhancing and optimizing the structure and function of plantations and for implementing sustainable forest management.