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为提高应急物资运输的高效性和可靠性,在充分考虑决策者的主观因素和风险态度后,建立一个基于累积前景理论(CPT)的应急物流路径选择模型。根据应急物流的特点,对CPT模型做了多参考点的延伸。选取物资运送的时间和运量作为模型的2个异质参考点,并在考虑时间可靠性和路径重新构造性的基础上,构建了2个参考点取值的数学模型。在算例部分,为对比决策者不同的风险态度对结果的影响,将决策者分为风险追求型和规避型。算例结果表明,该方法符合实际决策机制,有助于提升救援效率,而且参数的设置对路径前景值有重要影响。
In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of the transportation of emergency supplies, a model of emergency logistics route selection based on Cumulative Prospective Theory (CPT) is established after fully considering the subjective factors and risk attitude of decision-makers. According to the characteristics of emergency logistics, CPT model made a multi-reference point extension. The time and volume of material delivery are selected as two heterogeneous reference points of the model. Based on time reliability and path reconstruction, a mathematical model of two reference points is constructed. In the part of the example, to compare the impact of different risk attitude of decision makers on the results, the decision makers are divided into risk pursuit and avoidance. The results of the example show that this method is in line with the actual decision-making mechanism and helps to improve the rescue efficiency. Moreover, the setting of parameters has an important influence on the path foreground value.