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针对碰撞检测与预报问题,对航天器碰撞概率计算方法的研究现状进行了总结分析。归纳了航天器线性及非线性相对运动条件下典型碰撞概率计算方法的特点及适用性;为满足某些特殊任务的碰撞预警实时性要求,讨论了瞬时碰撞概率及最大瞬时碰撞概率计算方法。通过对研究现状的分析,提出了现阶段碰撞概率计算方法中存在的问题及未来发展方向,可为未来轨迹安全问题的研究和技术发展提供参考。
Aiming at the problem of collision detection and prediction, the research status of spacecraft collision probability calculation method is summarized and analyzed. The characteristics and applicability of the typical collision probability calculation method under the linear and nonlinear relative movement of spacecraft are summarized. In order to meet the real-time requirements of collision warning for some special tasks, the calculation methods of instantaneous collision probability and maximum instantaneous collision probability are discussed. Based on the analysis of current research status, the problems existing in the calculation of collision probability at the present stage as well as the future development direction are put forward, which can provide references for future trajectory safety research and technology development.