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将电力作为生产函数的投入要素,结合岭回归的方法,分析中国1990—2012年资本、人力和电力消费与经济增长之间的动态关系,并使用Logistic曲线模型寻找中国电力消费增长的拐点.结果显示,1990—2012年,劳动力是推动中国经济增长的主要动力,年均贡献率达40.17%,资本的贡献率呈稳步增长态势,平均贡献率为34.57%,电力消费的经济贡献率在振荡中逐渐上升,平均贡献率为30.13%;1999年之前是中国电力消费的渐增期,从2006年开始进入快增期,电力消费快速增长,从2011年开始,中国的电力消费进入缓增期,此后电力消费将有所放缓,并逐渐趋于稳定,但由于巨大的电力消费基数,能源供应压力依然十分巨大.
Taking electricity as input factor of production function and combining ridge regression method, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between capital, human and electricity consumption and economic growth in China from 1990 to 2012, and uses Logistic curve model to find the inflection point of China’s electricity consumption growth. Shows that from 1990 to 2012, the labor force is the main driving force to promote China’s economic growth with an average annual contribution rate of 40.17%. The contribution rate of capital shows a steady growth trend, with an average contribution rate of 34.57%. The economic contribution rate of electricity consumption fluctuates Gradually increased with an average contribution rate of 30.13%. Before 1999, China’s electricity consumption increased gradually. Since 2006, it entered a period of rapid increase with rapid growth in electricity consumption. Since 2011, China’s electricity consumption has entered a period of gradual increase, Electricity consumption will slow down thereafter and gradually stabilize, but due to huge power consumption base, the pressure on energy supply will remain immense.