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小麦生育期降水过程复杂多变,不同生育时段降水对小麦生长发育的影响不同。利用相关和逐步回归方法,对小麦生育期44个降水时段的变化及其与产量进行线性和回归分析,确定不同因子与小麦产量的相关关系,建立降水产量预测模型,明确不同降水因子对小麦产量形成的影响。结果表明:播种~越冬前及抽穗开花期的降水是影响冬小麦产量形成的关键降水因子,其中10月上旬降水、11月中旬降水、11月下旬降水及6月上旬降水与产量的偏相关系数均达到了极显著水平。该结论将有利于充分发挥自然降水的作用和进行灾害调控,实现增产。
The precipitation process in wheat growth period is complex and changeable, and the precipitation has different effects on the growth and development of wheat at different growth stages. Using correlation and stepwise regression, the linear regression and regression analysis of wheat yield during the precipitation period were carried out. The correlation between different factors and wheat yield was established. The forecast model of precipitation yield was established. The effects of different precipitation factors on wheat yield The formation of the impact. The results showed that the precipitation before sowing and heading and flowering were the key factors affecting the yield formation of winter wheat. The partial correlation coefficients between precipitation in early October, precipitation in mid November, precipitation in late November and precipitation in early June and yield in early June were Reached a very significant level. This conclusion will be conducive to giving full play to the role of natural precipitation and disaster control, to increase production.