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俄罗斯为了适应不同时期经济发展和外交战略的需要,经常调整其油气政策,大体经历了私有化、再国有化和国家控制下的部分开放三个阶段,始终没有形成一个稳定的油气政策,而国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险就源于俄油气政策的不稳定性。当前,国际石油公司在俄投资主要面临政治、经济、管理体制和法律法规4方面的风险。政治方面,政策突变和恐怖活动是国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险;经济方面,俄罗斯单一的能源经济在面对国际金融危机时缺乏抵抗力,增加了在俄投资所面临的风险;管理体制方面,俄联邦政府-石油公司-地方政府的混合型管理体制造成国际石油公司在俄投资阻力重重;法律法规方面,俄罗斯不时调整、出台新的法律法规,极大地缩短了国际石油公司的风险预警时间。对此,在进入俄油气领域时,中国石油公司应特别加强与俄罗斯国家控股石油公司的合作;利用资产交换项目,曲线进入俄油气勘探开发市场;发挥自身技术比较优势,实现有效合作;注重工程服务项目与勘探开发项目齐头并进;要充分把握两个有利时间点,当机遇来临之时,果断介入。
In order to meet the needs of economic development and diplomatic strategy in different periods, Russia has frequently adjusted its oil and gas policies and generally experienced three stages of privatization, re-nationalization and partial opening under state control. Russia has not formed a stable oil and gas policy. Internationally The biggest risk oil companies face in investing in Russia comes from the instability of Russian oil and gas policies. At present, the international oil companies investing mainly in Russia faces the risks of politics, economy, management system and laws and regulations. On the political front, policy changes and terrorist activities are the biggest risks that international oil companies face in investing in Russia. On the economic front, the single energy economy in Russia lacks resistance in the face of the international financial crisis and increases the risks it faces in investing in Russia. In terms of management system, the mixed management system of the Russian Federation government, the oil company and the local government has caused the international oil companies to invest heavily in Russia. On the laws and regulations, Russia adjusts and promulgates new laws and regulations from time to time, which greatly shortened the international oil companies’ Risk warning time. In response, CNPC should step up its cooperation with Russia’s state-controlled oil companies when entering Russia’s oil and gas field. By using the exchange of assets projects, the curve will enter the Russian oil and gas exploration and development market, give play to its comparative advantages in technology and achieve effective cooperation and focus on engineering Services and exploration and development projects go hand in hand; to take full advantage of two favorable points in time, when the opportunity comes, decisively involved.